AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag USLM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for USLM is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value USLM?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from USLM's most recent reported fundamentals.

USLM - United States Lime & Minerals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $138.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 90.3% above fair value

Current Price $113.74

Bear Case $49.34 56.6% downside ($49.34 - $113.74) / $113.74 = -56.6% $2.61 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $59.78 47.4% downside ($59.78 - $113.74) / $113.74 = -47.4% $2.61 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $70.22 38.3% downside ($70.22 - $113.74) / $113.74 = -38.3% $2.61 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

2.61$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.61)

Implied Market Multiple 43.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.61 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $59.78 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.2x.

Warnings

⚠ Recent profits ($4.67/share) are 79% above the mid-cycle average ($2.61). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing