AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes USA Rare Earth Inc's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag USAR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is USA Rare Earth Inc's fair value?

Fair value for USAR is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value USAR?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from USAR's most recent reported fundamentals.

USAR - USA Rare Earth Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $35.40 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 765.0% above fair value

Current Price $25.30

Bear Case $1.95 92.3% downside ($1.95 - $25.30) / $25.30 = -92.3% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple

Fair Value $2.93 88.4% downside ($2.93 - $25.30) / $25.30 = -88.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple

Bull Case $3.90 84.6% downside ($3.90 - $25.30) / $25.30 = -84.6% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

EPS Multiple

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 64.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 42% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $2.93. Wide scenario range: $1.95–$3.90.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.

⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.

ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

Key Risks

Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case