Urban Outfitters, Inc. logo URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 23
HOLD 33
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $87.13
UPSIDE: 19.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.2% below fair value
Current Price $73.01
Bear Case $65.17 10.7% downside ($65.17 - $73.01) / $73.01 = -10.7% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $85.09 16.5% upside ($85.09 - $73.01) / $73.01 = 16.5% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $103.83 42.2% upside ($103.83 - $73.01) / $73.01 = 42.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.13 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.09 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions