Urban Outfitters, Inc. logo URBN - Urban Outfitters, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 23
HOLD 33
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $89.00
CONSENSUS: $87.00
UPSIDE: 26.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.2% below fair value
Current Price $68.83
Bear Case $67.70 1.6% downside ($67.70 - $68.83) / $68.83 = -1.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $89.60 30.2% upside ($89.60 - $68.83) / $68.83 = 30.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $110.42 60.4% upside ($110.42 - $68.83) / $68.83 = 60.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 15.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.3% vs our 8.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.00 from 58 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.60 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions