Is UPMMY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies UPM-Kymmene Oyj as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag UPMMY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's fair value?

Fair value for UPMMY comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value UPMMY?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. UPMMY was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from UPMMY's most recent reported fundamentals.

UPMMY - UPM-Kymmene Oyj

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 13.9% above fair value

Current Price $27.61

Bear Case $19.39 29.8% downside ($19.39 - $27.61) / $27.61 = -29.8% $1.62 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $24.24 12.2% downside ($24.24 - $27.61) / $27.61 = -12.2% $1.62 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $29.09 5.4% upside ($29.09 - $27.61) / $27.61 = 5.4% $1.62 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

1.62$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.62, the base-case value is $24.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $54.54.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 58%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 337% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $54.54 (above our primary estimate by 125%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1255 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples