Is UPMMY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes UPM-Kymmene Oyj's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag UPMMY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's fair value?

Fair value for UPMMY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value UPMMY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from UPMMY's most recent reported fundamentals.

UPMMY - UPM-Kymmene Oyj

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 16.2% above fair value

Current Price $29.10

Bear Case $20.03 31.2% downside ($20.03 - $29.10) / $29.10 = -31.2% $1.67 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $25.04 14.0% downside ($25.04 - $29.10) / $29.10 = -14.0% $1.67 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $30.04 3.2% upside ($30.04 - $29.10) / $29.10 = 3.2% $1.67 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

1.67$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.67, the base-case value is $25.04 per share. DDM cross-check: $54.54.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 58%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 327% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $54.54 (above our primary estimate by 118%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1623 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples