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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 13
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $98.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $99.50
CONSENSUS: $98.33
UPSIDE: 16.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.8% below fair value
Current Price $84.52
Bear Case $38.81 54.1% downside ($38.81 - $84.52) / $84.52 = -54.1% ROTCE 5.1% → 0.57x TBV
Fair Value $96.94 14.7% upside ($96.94 - $84.52) / $84.52 = 14.7% ROTCE 6.9% → 1.43x TBV
Bull Case $131.83 56.0% upside ($131.83 - $84.52) / $84.52 = 56.0% ROTCE 7.9% → 1.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

6.9%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.25x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $98.33 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.94 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly