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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 14
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $123.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $102.29
UPSIDE: 15.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.4% below fair value
Current Price $88.87
Bear Case $39.28 55.8% downside ($39.28 - $88.87) / $88.87 = -55.8% ROTCE 5.1% → 0.57x TBV
Fair Value $98.13 10.4% upside ($98.13 - $88.87) / $88.87 = 10.4% ROTCE 6.9% → 1.43x TBV
Bull Case $133.44 50.2% upside ($133.44 - $88.87) / $88.87 = 50.2% ROTCE 7.9% → 1.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

6.9%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.32x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.29 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.13 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly