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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $262.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $262.00
LOW: $262.00
MEDIAN: $262.00
CONSENSUS: $262.00
DOWNSIDE: 4.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72.7% above fair value
Current Price $275.26
Bear Case $134.55 51.1% downside ($134.55 - $275.26) / $275.26 = -51.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $159.35 42.1% downside ($159.35 - $275.26) / $275.26 = -42.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $181.36 34.1% downside ($181.36 - $275.26) / $275.26 = -34.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 34.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.2% vs our 6.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $262.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $159.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $262.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions