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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $262.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $262.00
LOW: $262.00
MEDIAN: $262.00
CONSENSUS: $262.00
DOWNSIDE: 7.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 110.9% above fair value
Current Price $281.88
Bear Case $112.88 60.0% downside ($112.88 - $281.88) / $281.88 = -60.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $133.69 52.6% downside ($133.69 - $281.88) / $281.88 = -52.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $152.15 46.0% downside ($152.15 - $281.88) / $281.88 = -46.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 35.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.6% vs our 6.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $133.69 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $262.00
Analyst Range $262.00 – $262.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 49%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $262.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions