Universal Health Realty Income Trust logo UHT - Universal Health Realty Income Trust

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.0% below fair value
Current Price $41.46
Bear Case $43.97 6.1% upside ($43.97 - $41.46) / $41.46 = 6.1% $3.35 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $55.32 33.4% upside ($55.32 - $41.46) / $41.46 = 33.4% $3.35 FFO × 18x
Bull Case $66.66 60.8% upside ($66.66 - $41.46) / $41.46 = 60.8% $3.35 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.35$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.35) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.35 FFO/share with a 18x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.32 per share. Dividend yield: 7.2%. DDM cross-check: $43.73.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 7.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify