Universal Health Realty Income Trust logo UHT - Universal Health Realty Income Trust

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.0% below fair value
Current Price $38.15
Bear Case $43.95 15.2% upside ($43.95 - $38.15) / $38.15 = 15.2% $3.34 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $55.28 44.9% upside ($55.28 - $38.15) / $38.15 = 44.9% $3.34 FFO × 18x
Bull Case $66.62 74.6% upside ($66.62 - $38.15) / $38.15 = 74.6% $3.34 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.34$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.34) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.34 FFO/share with a 18x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.28 per share. Dividend yield: 7.8%. DDM cross-check: $43.85.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 7.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify