Universal Health Services, Inc. logo UHS - Universal Health Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 23
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $226.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $310.00
LOW: $190.00
MEDIAN: $211.00
CONSENSUS: $226.00
UPSIDE: 43.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.2% below fair value
Current Price $157.80
Bear Case $253.74 60.8% upside ($253.74 - $157.80) / $157.80 = 60.8% $23.19 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $317.17 101.0% upside ($317.17 - $157.80) / $157.80 = 101.0% $23.19 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $380.61 141.2% upside ($380.61 - $157.80) / $157.80 = 141.2% $23.19 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.4x
23.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $226.00 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $317.17 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $226.00 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples