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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $46.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $44.00
CONSENSUS: $43.33
UPSIDE: 21.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% below fair value
Current Price $35.65
Bear Case $43.86 23.0% upside ($43.86 - $35.65) / $35.65 = 23.0% $3.24 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $50.12 40.6% upside ($50.12 - $35.65) / $35.65 = 40.6% $3.24 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $56.39 58.2% upside ($56.39 - $35.65) / $35.65 = 58.2% $3.24 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.24$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.33 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.12 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $23.28 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples