UFP Technologies, Inc. logo UFPT - UFP Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $298.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $344.00
LOW: $252.00
MEDIAN: $298.00
CONSENSUS: $298.00
UPSIDE: 30.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.1% above fair value
Current Price $228.97
Bear Case $150.31 34.4% downside ($150.31 - $228.97) / $228.97 = -34.4% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $226.40 1.1% downside ($226.40 - $228.97) / $228.97 = -1.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $306.11 33.7% upside ($306.11 - $228.97) / $228.97 = 33.7% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 26.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $226.40 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions