UFP Industries, Inc. logo UFPI - UFP Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $97.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $108.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $97.50
CONSENSUS: $97.50
UPSIDE: 15.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.2% below fair value
Current Price $84.55
Bear Case $84.01 0.6% downside ($84.01 - $84.55) / $84.55 = -0.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $103.39 22.3% upside ($103.39 - $84.55) / $84.55 = 22.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $121.51 43.7% upside ($121.51 - $84.55) / $84.55 = 43.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 14.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 4.8% vs our 8.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.39 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions