Urban Edge Properties logo UE - Urban Edge Properties

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.7% below fair value
Current Price $22.52
Bear Case $24.30 7.9% upside ($24.30 - $22.52) / $22.52 = 7.9% $1.85 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $29.51 31.0% upside ($29.51 - $22.52) / $22.52 = 31.0% $1.85 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $34.72 54.2% upside ($34.72 - $22.52) / $22.52 = 54.2% $1.85 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.85) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.51 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify