Urban Edge Properties logo UE - Urban Edge Properties

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 14.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.3% below fair value
Current Price $21.39
Bear Case $24.03 12.3% upside ($24.03 - $21.39) / $21.39 = 12.3% $1.85 FFO × 12x
Fair Value $29.41 37.5% upside ($29.41 - $21.39) / $21.39 = 37.5% $1.85 FFO × 15x
Bull Case $34.79 62.7% upside ($34.79 - $21.39) / $21.39 = 62.7% $1.85 FFO × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.85) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.85 FFO/share with a 15x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $29.41 per share. Dividend yield: 3.8%. DDM cross-check: $33.41.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $24.50
Analyst Range $24.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 20%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify