Urban Edge Properties logo UE - Urban Edge Properties

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 4.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.0% below fair value
Current Price $23.42
Bear Case $24.72 5.5% upside ($24.72 - $23.42) / $23.42 = 5.5% $1.85 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $30.01 28.1% upside ($30.01 - $23.42) / $23.42 = 28.1% $1.85 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $35.31 50.8% upside ($35.31 - $23.42) / $23.42 = 50.8% $1.85 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.85$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.85) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.50 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.01 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify