Uber Technologies, Inc. logo UBER - Uber Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 49
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $102.25
UPSIDE: 42.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.0% below fair value
Current Price $71.99
Bear Case $84.98 18.0% upside ($84.98 - $71.99) / $71.99 = 18.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $156.43 117.3% upside ($156.43 - $71.99) / $71.99 = 117.3% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $246.06 241.8% upside ($246.06 - $71.99) / $71.99 = 241.8% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.6% vs our 19.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.25 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.43 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $102.25 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions