Uber Technologies, Inc. logo UBER - Uber Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 49
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $101.95 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $101.95
UPSIDE: 42.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.2% below fair value
Current Price $71.64
Bear Case $84.90 18.5% upside ($84.90 - $71.64) / $71.64 = 18.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $156.25 118.1% upside ($156.25 - $71.64) / $71.64 = 118.1% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $245.71 243.0% upside ($245.71 - $71.64) / $71.64 = 243.0% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 17.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.95 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $156.25 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $101.95 (from 61 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions