AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes CVR Partners, LP's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag UAN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is CVR Partners, LP's fair value?

Fair value for UAN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value UAN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from UAN's most recent reported fundamentals.

UAN - CVR Partners, LP

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 85.8% above fair value

Current Price $125.17

Bear Case $41.45 66.9% downside ($41.45 - $125.17) / $125.17 = -66.9% $10.36 × 7x + net cash

Fair Value $67.36 46.2% downside ($67.36 - $125.17) / $125.17 = -46.2% $10.36 × 10x + net cash

Bull Case $93.26 25.5% downside ($93.26 - $125.17) / $125.17 = -25.5% $10.36 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

10.36$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($10.36)

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $10.36 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $67.36 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.0x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing