United Airlines Holdings, Inc. logo UAL - United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 31
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $136.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $112.00
MEDIAN: $135.50
CONSENSUS: $136.10
UPSIDE: 36.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.9% below fair value
Current Price $99.96
Bear Case $78.29 21.7% downside ($78.29 - $99.96) / $99.96 = -21.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $134.98 35.0% upside ($134.98 - $99.96) / $99.96 = 35.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $193.07 93.1% upside ($193.07 - $99.96) / $99.96 = 93.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.10 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $134.98 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions