AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Texas Instruments Incorporated as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag TXN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Texas Instruments Incorporated's fair value?

Fair value for TXN comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value TXN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. TXN was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from TXN's most recent reported fundamentals.

TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $325.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 149.3% above fair value

Current Price $282.03

Bear Case $84.84 69.9% downside ($84.84 - $282.03) / $282.03 = -69.9% $7.07 × 12x

Fair Value $113.12 59.9% downside ($113.12 - $282.03) / $282.03 = -59.9% $7.07 × 16x

Bull Case $141.40 49.9% downside ($141.40 - $282.03) / $282.03 = -49.9% $7.07 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

16.0x

Normalized EPS

7.07$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.07)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 39.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $7.07 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $113.12 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 22.0x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (65 analysts) $325.00

Analyst Range $225.00 – $405.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 22.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $325.00 (from 65 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing