TW - Tradeweb Markets Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$131.20
DETAILS
HIGH:
$150.00
LOW:
$112.00
MEDIAN:
$138.00
CONSENSUS:
$131.20
UPSIDE:
23.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
36.8%
8.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (36.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
10.24x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $131.20 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.14 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $131.20 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly