TELUS Corporation logo TU - TELUS Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.59 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $21.50
MEDIAN: $22.28
CONSENSUS: $22.59
UPSIDE: 80.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.9% below fair value
Current Price $12.49
Bear Case $9.17 26.6% downside ($9.17 - $12.49) / $12.49 = -26.6% EBITDA $5B × 6.4x − $21B debt
Fair Value $13.57 8.6% upside ($13.57 - $12.49) / $12.49 = 8.6% EBITDA $5B × 7.5x − $21B debt
Bull Case $17.96 43.8% upside ($17.96 - $12.49) / $12.49 = 43.8% EBITDA $5B × 8.5x − $21B debt

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (7.5x) vs. 4.2× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.59 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.57 per share.

Warnings

Debt is 4.2x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.59 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7240 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable