TELUS Corporation logo TU - TELUS Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $11.00
CONSENSUS: $11.00
UPSIDE: 24.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.1% below fair value
Current Price $8.86
Bear Case $6.38 28.0% downside ($6.38 - $8.86) / $8.86 = -28.0% EBITDA $5B × 6.3x − $21B debt
Fair Value $9.64 8.8% upside ($9.64 - $8.86) / $8.86 = 8.8% EBITDA $5B × 7.4x − $21B debt
Bull Case $12.90 45.6% upside ($12.90 - $8.86) / $8.86 = 45.6% EBITDA $5B × 8.4x − $21B debt

Adjust Assumptions

7.4x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (7.4x) vs. 4.3× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 7.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At 7.4x EV/EBITDA on $5B EBITDA, enterprise value is $36B. After subtracting $21B net debt, equity value is $9.64 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $11.00
Analyst Range $11.00 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 4.3x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.
ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7140 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
  • EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
  • Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable