Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. logo TTWO - Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 44
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $288.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $280.00
MEDIAN: $285.00
CONSENSUS: $288.00
UPSIDE: 26.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 85.2% above fair value
Current Price $227.55
Bear Case $71.71 68.5% downside ($71.71 - $227.55) / $227.55 = -68.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $122.87 46.0% downside ($122.87 - $227.55) / $227.55 = -46.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $179.75 21.0% downside ($179.75 - $227.55) / $227.55 = -21.0% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 185.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $288.00 from 56 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.87 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $288.00 (from 56 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions