Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. logo TTWO - Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 45
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $288.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $280.00
MEDIAN: $287.00
CONSENSUS: $288.63
UPSIDE: 18.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.2% above fair value
Current Price $243.20
Bear Case $72.74 70.1% downside ($72.74 - $243.20) / $243.20 = -70.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $121.48 50.0% downside ($121.48 - $243.20) / $243.20 = -50.0% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $174.58 28.2% downside ($174.58 - $243.20) / $243.20 = -28.2% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 198.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 39.9% vs our 14.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $288.63 from 57 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $288.63 (from 57 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions