Tetra Tech, Inc. logo TTEK - Tetra Tech, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 12.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 58.5% above fair value
Current Price $31.17
Bear Case $14.42 53.7% downside ($14.42 - $31.17) / $31.17 = -53.7% $0.97 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $19.66 36.9% downside ($19.66 - $31.17) / $31.17 = -36.9% $0.97 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $24.91 20.1% downside ($24.91 - $31.17) / $31.17 = -20.1% $0.97 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
0.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)

Implied Market Multiple 32.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.66 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing