TTEK - Tetra Tech, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$35.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$35.00
LOW:
$35.00
MEDIAN:
$35.00
CONSENSUS:
$35.00
UPSIDE:
26.58%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
0.97$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)
Implied Market Multiple
28.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.66 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing