The Toro Company logo TTC - The Toro Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $130.00
LOW: $86.00
MEDIAN: $91.50
CONSENSUS: $99.75
UPSIDE: 0.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 109.2% above fair value
Current Price $99.46
Bear Case $38.04 61.8% downside ($38.04 - $99.46) / $99.46 = -61.8% $3.17 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $47.55 52.2% downside ($47.55 - $99.46) / $99.46 = -52.2% $3.17 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $57.06 42.6% downside ($57.06 - $99.46) / $99.46 = -42.6% $3.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share. DDM cross-check: $79.38.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $99.75
Analyst Range $86.00 – $130.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $79.38 (above our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $99.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples