TTC - The Toro Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$117.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$120.00
LOW:
$115.00
MEDIAN:
$117.50
CONSENSUS:
$117.50
UPSIDE:
22.66%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share. DDM cross-check: $62.93.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$117.50
Analyst Range
$115.00 – $120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $62.93 (above our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $117.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples