TTC - The Toro Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$99.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$130.00
LOW:
$86.00
MEDIAN:
$91.50
CONSENSUS:
$99.75
UPSIDE:
0.29%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
65% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share. DDM cross-check: $79.38.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$99.75
Analyst Range
$86.00 – $130.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
52%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $79.38 (above our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $99.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples