The Toro Company logo TTC - The Toro Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $130.00
LOW: $86.00
MEDIAN: $91.50
CONSENSUS: $99.75
UPSIDE: 6.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.3% above fair value
Current Price $93.33
Bear Case $49.69 46.8% downside ($49.69 - $93.33) / $93.33 = -46.8% $3.51 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $62.11 33.5% downside ($62.11 - $93.33) / $93.33 = -33.5% $3.51 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $74.53 20.1% downside ($74.53 - $93.33) / $93.33 = -20.1% $3.51 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.75 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.11 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $79.38 (above our primary estimate by 51%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $99.75 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples