The Toro Company logo TTC - The Toro Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $117.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $115.00
MEDIAN: $117.50
CONSENSUS: $117.50
UPSIDE: 22.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 101.5% above fair value
Current Price $95.79
Bear Case $38.04 60.3% downside ($38.04 - $95.79) / $95.79 = -60.3% $3.17 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $47.55 50.4% downside ($47.55 - $95.79) / $95.79 = -50.4% $3.17 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $57.06 40.4% downside ($57.06 - $95.79) / $95.79 = -40.4% $3.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share. DDM cross-check: $62.93.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $117.50
Analyst Range $115.00 – $120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 60%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $62.93 (above our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $117.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples