The Toro Company logo TTC - The Toro Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $86.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $86.00
LOW: $86.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $86.00
DOWNSIDE: 5.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.2% above fair value
Current Price $90.80
Bear Case $47.41 47.8% downside ($47.41 - $90.80) / $90.80 = -47.8% $3.51 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $59.26 34.7% downside ($59.26 - $90.80) / $90.80 = -34.7% $3.51 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $71.11 21.7% downside ($71.11 - $90.80) / $90.80 = -21.7% $3.51 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.26 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $79.38 (above our primary estimate by 51%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $86.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples