AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Timberland Bancorp, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag TSBK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for TSBK comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value TSBK?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. TSBK was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from TSBK's most recent reported fundamentals.

TSBK - Timberland Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 63.3% below fair value

Current Price $45.59

Bear Case $77.26 69.5% upside ($77.26 - $45.59) / $45.59 = 69.5% ROTCE 8.9% → 2.44x TBV

Fair Value $124.14 172.3% upside ($124.14 - $45.59) / $45.59 = 172.3% ROTCE 11.8% → 3.92x TBV

Bull Case $126.75 178.0% upside ($126.75 - $45.59) / $45.59 = 178.0% ROTCE 13.6% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

11.8%

Cost of Equity

6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.44x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.8% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.92x on $31.69 tangible book, implying $124.14 per share. DDM cross-check: $1583.05.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $1583.05 (1175% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly