AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag TSBK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for TSBK is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value TSBK?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from TSBK's most recent reported fundamentals.

TSBK - Timberland Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 67.4% below fair value

Current Price $40.16

Bear Case $76.74 91.1% upside ($76.74 - $40.16) / $40.16 = 91.1% ROTCE 8.9% → 2.44x TBV

Fair Value $123.31 207.0% upside ($123.31 - $40.16) / $40.16 = 207.0% ROTCE 11.8% → 3.92x TBV

Bull Case $125.91 213.5% upside ($125.91 - $40.16) / $40.16 = 213.5% ROTCE 13.6% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

11.8%

Cost of Equity

6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.28x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.8% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.92x on $31.48 tangible book, implying $123.31 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.26.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $40.26 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly