TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$33.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$42.00
LOW:
$29.00
MEDIAN:
$31.00
CONSENSUS:
$33.25
UPSIDE:
27.59%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
6.1%
12.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.1%) vs. cost of equity (12.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.55x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 6.1% vs. 12.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $7.35 tangible book, implying $2.20 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$33.25
Analyst Range
$29.00 – $42.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
93%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.1%) is below the minimum investors require (12.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $33.25 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly