TrueCar, Inc. logo TRUE - TrueCar, Inc.

Inactive Ticker TRUE is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.35 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.75
LOW: $2.55
MEDIAN: $3.75
CONSENSUS: $3.35
UPSIDE: 31.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 79.6% below fair value
Current Price $2.54
Bear Case $10.42 310.3% upside ($10.42 - $2.54) / $2.54 = 310.3% $0.72 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $12.45 390.1% upside ($12.45 - $2.54) / $2.54 = 390.1% $0.72 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $14.47 469.8% upside ($14.47 - $2.54) / $2.54 = 469.8% $0.72 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.72$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.35 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.45 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $3.35 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 362% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples