Terreno Realty Corporation logo TRNO - Terreno Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.92 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $73.92
UPSIDE: 15.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.5% below fair value
Current Price $64.06
Bear Case $112.65 75.8% upside ($112.65 - $64.06) / $64.06 = 75.8% $4.81 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $137.68 114.9% upside ($137.68 - $64.06) / $64.06 = 114.9% $4.81 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $162.71 154.0% upside ($162.71 - $64.06) / $64.06 = 154.0% $4.81 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
4.81$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.81) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.81 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $137.68 per share. Dividend yield: 3.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $73.92
Analyst Range $60.00 – $85.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 86%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $73.92 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 86% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify