Terreno Realty Corporation logo TRNO - Terreno Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $70.67
UPSIDE: 6.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.0% below fair value
Current Price $66.05
Bear Case $98.18 48.6% upside ($98.18 - $66.05) / $66.05 = 48.6% $4.93 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $119.99 81.7% upside ($119.99 - $66.05) / $66.05 = 81.7% $4.93 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $141.81 114.7% upside ($141.81 - $66.05) / $66.05 = 114.7% $4.93 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
4.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.93) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.67 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.99 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.67 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 100% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify