Terreno Realty Corporation logo TRNO - Terreno Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.91 DETAILS
HIGH: $91.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $73.91
UPSIDE: 12.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.4% below fair value
Current Price $65.74
Bear Case $115.47 75.6% upside ($115.47 - $65.74) / $65.74 = 75.6% $4.93 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $141.13 114.7% upside ($141.13 - $65.74) / $65.74 = 114.7% $4.93 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $166.79 153.7% upside ($166.79 - $65.74) / $65.74 = 153.7% $4.93 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
4.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.93) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.93 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $141.13 per share. Dividend yield: 3.2%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $73.91
Analyst Range $60.00 – $91.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 91%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.91 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify