Terreno Realty Corporation logo TRNO - Terreno Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $79.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $71.75
DOWNSIDE: 4.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.6% below fair value
Current Price $75.06
Bear Case $98.44 31.1% upside ($98.44 - $75.06) / $75.06 = 31.1% $4.93 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $120.32 60.3% upside ($120.32 - $75.06) / $75.06 = 60.3% $4.93 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $142.19 89.4% upside ($142.19 - $75.06) / $75.06 = 89.4% $4.93 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
4.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.93) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.75 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.32 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.75 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify