Trimble Inc. logo TRMB - Trimble Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.00
UPSIDE: 51.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.7% above fair value
Current Price $52.82
Bear Case $34.72 34.3% downside ($34.72 - $52.82) / $52.82 = -34.3% $2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $43.40 17.8% downside ($43.40 - $52.82) / $52.82 = -17.8% $2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $52.08 1.4% downside ($52.08 - $52.82) / $52.82 = -1.4% $2.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $80.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples