Trimble Inc. logo TRMB - Trimble Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $76.50
CONSENSUS: $73.50
UPSIDE: 23.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 127.4% above fair value
Current Price $59.68
Bear Case $21.00 64.8% downside ($21.00 - $59.68) / $59.68 = -64.8% $1.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.25 56.0% downside ($26.25 - $59.68) / $59.68 = -56.0% $1.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $31.50 47.2% downside ($31.50 - $59.68) / $59.68 = -47.2% $1.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.75, the base-case value is $26.25 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $73.50
Analyst Range $61.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $73.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples