Trimble Inc. logo TRMB - Trimble Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $101.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $99.00
CONSENSUS: $93.33
UPSIDE: 65.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.6% above fair value
Current Price $56.34
Bear Case $37.39 33.6% downside ($37.39 - $56.34) / $56.34 = -33.6% $2.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $46.73 17.1% downside ($46.73 - $56.34) / $56.34 = -17.1% $2.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $56.08 0.5% downside ($56.08 - $56.34) / $56.34 = -0.5% $2.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.33 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.73 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $93.33 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples