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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 10
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $133.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $183.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $132.50
CONSENSUS: $133.25
UPSIDE: 39.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.5% above fair value
Current Price $95.71
Bear Case $58.68 38.7% downside ($58.68 - $95.71) / $95.71 = -38.7% $4.89 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $73.35 23.4% downside ($73.35 - $95.71) / $95.71 = -23.4% $4.89 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $88.02 8.0% downside ($88.02 - $95.71) / $95.71 = -8.0% $4.89 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.89$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.89, the base-case value is $73.35 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $133.25
Analyst Range $85.00 – $183.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 45%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 44%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 100% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $133.25 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples