Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. logo TRDA - Entrada Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
UPSIDE: 159.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.3% below fair value
Current Price $6.56
Bear Case $8.99 37.0% upside ($8.99 - $6.56) / $6.56 = 37.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $13.48 105.5% upside ($13.48 - $6.56) / $6.56 = 105.5% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $17.97 174.0% upside ($17.97 - $6.56) / $6.56 = 174.0% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 3.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.48 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case