AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Tejon Ranch Co.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag TRC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Tejon Ranch Co.'s fair value?

Fair value for TRC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value TRC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from TRC's most recent reported fundamentals.

TRC - Tejon Ranch Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 517.7% above fair value

Current Price $18.16

Bear Case $2.35 87.0% downside ($2.35 - $18.16) / $18.16 = -87.0% $0.20 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $2.94 83.8% downside ($2.94 - $18.16) / $18.16 = -83.8% $0.20 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $3.53 80.6% downside ($3.53 - $18.16) / $18.16 = -80.6% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

0.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 92.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $2.94 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 6900%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 3571% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples