Tejon Ranch Co. logo TRC - Tejon Ranch Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
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STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 554.8% above fair value
Current Price $19.25
Bear Case $2.35 87.8% downside ($2.35 - $19.25) / $19.25 = -87.8% $0.20 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $2.94 84.7% downside ($2.94 - $19.25) / $19.25 = -84.7% $0.20 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.53 81.7% downside ($3.53 - $19.25) / $19.25 = -81.7% $0.20 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 98.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $2.94 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 6900%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 3571% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples