Tapestry, Inc. logo TPR - Tapestry, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 30
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $232.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $170.00
CONSENSUS: $173.83
UPSIDE: 42.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.0% above fair value
Current Price $122.14
Bear Case $87.24 28.6% downside ($87.24 - $122.14) / $122.14 = -28.6% $7.27 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $109.05 10.7% downside ($109.05 - $122.14) / $122.14 = -10.7% $7.27 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $130.86 7.1% upside ($130.86 - $122.14) / $122.14 = 7.1% $7.27 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
7.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.27, the base-case value is $109.05 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (41 analysts) $173.83
Analyst Range $140.00 – $232.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $173.83 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples