AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag TPB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Turning Point Brands, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for TPB is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value TPB?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from TPB's most recent reported fundamentals.

TPB - Turning Point Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $128.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 22.0% above fair value

Current Price $89.99

Bear Case $60.72 32.5% downside ($60.72 - $89.99) / $89.99 = -32.5% $3.38 × 15x P/E

Fair Value $73.74 18.1% downside ($73.74 - $89.99) / $89.99 = -18.1% $3.38 × 18x P/E

Bull Case $86.75 3.6% downside ($86.75 - $89.99) / $89.99 = -3.6% $3.38 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

17.8x

Adjusted EPS

3.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.74 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $17.80 (below our primary estimate by 70%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $128.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples