Teekay Tankers Ltd. logo TNK - Teekay Tankers Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $86.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $86.00
LOW: $86.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $86.00
UPSIDE: 16.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.5% below fair value
Current Price $73.99
Bear Case $129.15 74.6% upside ($129.15 - $73.99) / $73.99 = 74.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $146.62 98.2% upside ($146.62 - $73.99) / $73.99 = 98.2% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $161.69 118.5% upside ($161.69 - $73.99) / $73.99 = 118.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 5.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -9.9% vs our 5.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $146.62 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $86.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions