Tennant Company logo TNC - Tennant Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $140.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $140.00
CONSENSUS: $140.00
UPSIDE: 66.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.8% above fair value
Current Price $83.87
Bear Case $56.48 32.7% downside ($56.48 - $83.87) / $83.87 = -32.7% $3.55 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $70.60 15.8% downside ($70.60 - $83.87) / $83.87 = -15.8% $3.55 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $84.72 1.0% upside ($84.72 - $83.87) / $83.87 = 1.0% $3.55 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.60 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 50%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $37.28 (below our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples