Tompkins Financial Corporation logo TMP - Tompkins Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $74.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $74.00
DOWNSIDE: 19.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.1% below fair value
Current Price $92.18
Bear Case $139.86 51.7% upside ($139.86 - $92.18) / $92.18 = 51.7% ROTCE 14.0% → 2.33x TBV
Fair Value $205.16 122.6% upside ($205.16 - $92.18) / $92.18 = 122.6% ROTCE 18.6% → 3.42x TBV
Bull Case $240.27 160.7% upside ($240.27 - $92.18) / $92.18 = 160.7% ROTCE 21.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

18.6%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (18.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.53x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 18.6% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.42x on $60.07 tangible book, implying $205.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.97.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $50.97 (75% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly