Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. logo TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 36
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $597.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $650.00
LOW: $520.00
MEDIAN: $600.00
CONSENSUS: $597.67
DOWNSIDE: 3.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 133.8% above fair value
Current Price $622.18
Bear Case $212.88 65.8% downside ($212.88 - $622.18) / $622.18 = -65.8% $17.74 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $266.10 57.2% downside ($266.10 - $622.18) / $622.18 = -57.2% $17.74 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $319.32 48.7% downside ($319.32 - $622.18) / $622.18 = -48.7% $17.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
17.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.74, the base-case value is $266.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $597.67
Analyst Range $520.00 – $650.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 55%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $597.67 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples