Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. logo TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 37
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $585.18 DETAILS
HIGH: $683.00
LOW: $490.00
MEDIAN: $600.00
CONSENSUS: $585.18
UPSIDE: 7.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.7% above fair value
Current Price $543.19
Bear Case $322.56 40.6% downside ($322.56 - $543.19) / $543.19 = -40.6% $21.68 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $403.21 25.8% downside ($403.21 - $543.19) / $543.19 = -25.8% $21.68 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $483.84 10.9% downside ($483.84 - $543.19) / $543.19 = -10.9% $21.68 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
21.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $585.18 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $403.21 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $585.18 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples