Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. logo TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 38
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $638.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $750.00
LOW: $490.00
MEDIAN: $644.50
CONSENSUS: $638.20
UPSIDE: 42.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.9% above fair value
Current Price $448.18
Bear Case $335.28 25.2% downside ($335.28 - $448.18) / $448.18 = -25.2% $21.68 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $419.11 6.5% downside ($419.11 - $448.18) / $448.18 = -6.5% $21.68 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $502.93 12.2% upside ($502.93 - $448.18) / $448.18 = 12.2% $21.68 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
21.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $638.20 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $419.11 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $638.20 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples