Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. logo TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 36
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $664.79 DETAILS
HIGH: $750.00
LOW: $520.00
MEDIAN: $685.00
CONSENSUS: $664.79
DOWNSIDE: 5.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 163.0% above fair value
Current Price $699.79
Bear Case $212.88 69.6% downside ($212.88 - $699.79) / $699.79 = -69.6% $17.74 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $266.10 62.0% downside ($266.10 - $699.79) / $699.79 = -62.0% $17.74 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $319.32 54.4% downside ($319.32 - $699.79) / $699.79 = -54.4% $17.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
17.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 39.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $17.74, the base-case value is $266.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $664.79
Analyst Range $520.00 – $750.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 60%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $664.79 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples