Taylor Morrison Home Corporation logo TMHC - Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 15
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $76.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $72.50
CONSENSUS: $72.75
UPSIDE: 1.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.6% below fair value
Current Price $71.85
Bear Case $80.97 12.7% upside ($80.97 - $71.85) / $71.85 = 12.7% $7.77 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $108.23 50.6% upside ($108.23 - $71.85) / $71.85 = 50.6% $7.77 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $135.48 88.6% upside ($135.48 - $71.85) / $71.85 = 88.6% $7.77 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
7.77$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.77)

Implied Market Multiple 9.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.75 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $108.23 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $72.75 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 70% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing