Tencent Music Entertainment Group logo TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $10.70
MEDIAN: $17.40
CONSENSUS: $17.82
UPSIDE: 102.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 61.4% below fair value
Current Price $8.81
Bear Case $16.80 90.7% upside ($16.80 - $8.81) / $8.81 = 90.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $22.82 159.1% upside ($22.82 - $8.81) / $8.81 = 159.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $28.94 228.4% upside ($28.94 - $8.81) / $8.81 = 228.4% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 7.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.82 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.82 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $17.82 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1472 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions