TransMedics Group, Inc. logo TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $116.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $142.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $122.00
CONSENSUS: $116.00
UPSIDE: 62.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.5% below fair value
Current Price $71.23
Bear Case $66.81 6.2% downside ($66.81 - $71.23) / $71.23 = -6.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $119.78 68.2% upside ($119.78 - $71.23) / $71.23 = 68.2% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $185.85 160.9% upside ($185.85 - $71.23) / $71.23 = 160.9% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 23.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.8% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $116.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.78 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions