TransMedics Group, Inc. logo TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $122.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $142.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $129.50
CONSENSUS: $122.67
UPSIDE: 74.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.8% below fair value
Current Price $70.46
Bear Case $67.56 4.1% downside ($67.56 - $70.46) / $70.46 = -4.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $121.11 71.9% upside ($121.11 - $70.46) / $70.46 = 71.9% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $187.92 166.7% upside ($187.92 - $70.46) / $70.46 = 166.7% 26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 22.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.67 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.11 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions