Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk logo TLK - Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.4% below fair value
Current Price $12.21
Bear Case $17.90 46.6% upside ($17.90 - $12.21) / $12.21 = 46.6% $1.49 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $22.38 83.3% upside ($22.38 - $12.21) / $12.21 = 83.3% $1.49 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $26.85 119.9% upside ($26.85 - $12.21) / $12.21 = 119.9% $1.49 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.49$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.49, the base-case value is $22.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 48%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 468% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from IDR into USD using USDIDR at 0.0001 USD per IDR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples