Interface, Inc. logo TILE - Interface, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $36.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $36.00
UPSIDE: 4.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 71.4% above fair value
Current Price $34.30
Bear Case $14.68 57.2% downside ($14.68 - $34.30) / $34.30 = -57.2% $1.07 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $20.02 41.6% downside ($20.02 - $34.30) / $34.30 = -41.6% $1.07 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $25.35 26.1% downside ($25.35 - $34.30) / $34.30 = -26.1% $1.07 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.07$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.07)

Implied Market Multiple 32.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.02 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Recent profits ($1.96/share) are 84% above the mid-cycle average ($1.07). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing