Millicom International Cellular S.A. logo TIGO - Millicom International Cellular S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $69.25
DOWNSIDE: 19.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 75.2% above fair value
Current Price $85.84
Bear Case $49.00 42.9% downside ($49.00 - $85.84) / $85.84 = -42.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $49.00 42.9% downside ($49.00 - $85.84) / $85.84 = -42.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $55.85 34.9% downside ($55.85 - $85.84) / $85.84 = -34.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.00 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $69.25 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions