Millicom International Cellular S.A. logo TIGO - Millicom International Cellular S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $52.40
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $74.10
DOWNSIDE: 22.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.4% above fair value
Current Price $95.64
Bear Case $51.77 45.9% downside ($51.77 - $95.64) / $95.64 = -45.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $73.90 22.7% downside ($73.90 - $95.64) / $95.64 = -22.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $93.91 1.8% downside ($93.91 - $95.64) / $95.64 = -1.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 20.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.1% vs our 6.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $74.10 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.90 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions