THRY - Thryv Holdings, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$6.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$7.00
LOW:
$6.00
MEDIAN:
$6.50
CONSENSUS:
$6.50
UPSIDE:
63.73%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Distressed or Transitioning
75% confidence
Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
6.0x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.30 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($5.55) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case