Thryv Holdings, Inc. logo THRY - Thryv Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $6.50
CONSENSUS: $6.50
UPSIDE: 63.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 205.4% above fair value
Current Price $3.97
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $3.97) / $3.97 = -100.0% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $1.30 67.3% downside ($1.30 - $3.97) / $3.97 = -67.3% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $0.07 98.2% downside ($0.07 - $3.97) / $3.97 = -98.2% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 13.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.30 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($5.55) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $6.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case