Gentherm Incorporated logo THRM - Gentherm Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $47.67
UPSIDE: 17.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.1% above fair value
Current Price $40.70
Bear Case $22.82 43.9% downside ($22.82 - $40.70) / $40.70 = -43.9% $1.46 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $26.08 35.9% downside ($26.08 - $40.70) / $40.70 = -35.9% $1.46 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $29.34 27.9% downside ($29.34 - $40.70) / $40.70 = -27.9% $1.46 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.9x
1.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.46, the base-case value is $26.08 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $47.67
Analyst Range $34.00 – $59.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 45%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 143%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples