TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$15.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$15.00
LOW:
$15.00
MEDIAN:
$15.00
CONSENSUS:
$15.00
DOWNSIDE:
6.07%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
4.8%
8.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (4.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.39x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 4.8% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $6.69 tangible book, implying $3.10 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.69.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (4.8%) is below the minimum investors require (8.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.69 (341% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly