TFIN - Triumph Financial, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$84.67
DETAILS
HIGH:
$88.00
LOW:
$82.00
MEDIAN:
$84.00
CONSENSUS:
$84.67
UPSIDE:
36.59%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
4.7%
11.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (4.7%) vs. cost of equity (11.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.75x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 4.7% vs. 11.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $22.54 tangible book, implying $33.84 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$84.67
Analyst Range
$82.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (4.7%) is below the minimum investors require (11.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $84.67 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly