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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 14
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $81.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $86.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $81.33
UPSIDE: 52.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.6% below fair value
Current Price $53.19
Bear Case $40.38 24.1% downside ($40.38 - $53.19) / $53.19 = -24.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $64.52 21.3% upside ($64.52 - $53.19) / $53.19 = 21.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $89.34 68.0% upside ($89.34 - $53.19) / $53.19 = 68.0% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 18.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.0% vs our 12.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $81.33
Analyst Range $70.00 – $86.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions