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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 15
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $81.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $56.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $81.33
UPSIDE: 40.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.3% below fair value
Current Price $57.76
Bear Case $71.16 23.2% upside ($71.16 - $57.76) / $57.76 = 23.2% $4.32 × 20x + net cash
Fair Value $87.90 52.2% upside ($87.90 - $57.76) / $57.76 = 52.2% $4.32 × 24x + net cash
Bull Case $104.65 81.2% upside ($104.65 - $57.76) / $57.76 = 81.2% $4.32 × 28x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
4.32$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.32)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $81.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.90 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing