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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 17.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.9% below fair value
Current Price $42.61
Bear Case $50.05 17.5% upside ($50.05 - $42.61) / $42.61 = 17.5% $4.45 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $62.56 46.8% upside ($62.56 - $42.61) / $42.61 = 46.8% $4.45 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $75.08 76.2% upside ($75.08 - $42.61) / $42.61 = 76.2% $4.45 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.56 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples