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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
DOWNSIDE: 33.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.5% below fair value
Current Price $52.38
Bear Case $53.40 1.9% upside ($53.40 - $52.38) / $52.38 = 1.9% $4.45 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $66.75 27.4% upside ($66.75 - $52.38) / $52.38 = 27.4% $4.45 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $80.10 52.9% upside ($80.10 - $52.38) / $52.38 = 52.9% $4.45 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.45, the base-case value is $66.75 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $35.00
Analyst Range $20.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 91%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 91% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples