Teck Resources Limited logo TECK - Teck Resources Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $67.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $68.00
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $67.50
CONSENSUS: $67.50
UPSIDE: 12.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.6% above fair value
Current Price $59.75
Bear Case $42.83 28.3% downside ($42.83 - $59.75) / $59.75 = -28.3% $3.26 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $53.54 10.4% downside ($53.54 - $59.75) / $59.75 = -10.4% $3.26 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $64.25 7.5% upside ($64.25 - $59.75) / $59.75 = 7.5% $3.26 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.50 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.54 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 63%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $67.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7085 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples