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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $67.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $64.50
CONSENSUS: $64.50
UPSIDE: 2.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.9% above fair value
Current Price $62.66
Bear Case $42.87 31.6% downside ($42.87 - $62.66) / $62.66 = -31.6% $3.33 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $53.59 14.5% downside ($53.59 - $62.66) / $62.66 = -14.5% $3.33 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $64.32 2.6% upside ($64.32 - $62.66) / $62.66 = 2.6% $3.33 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.50 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.59 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 63%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7240 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples