TDW - Tidewater Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$105.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$120.00
LOW:
$91.00
MEDIAN:
$105.50
CONSENSUS:
$105.50
UPSIDE:
24.56%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Oil & Gas E&P
85% confidence
Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Plain-Language Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $43.25 per share. Range: $24.97 (bear) to $66.23 (bull).
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$105.50
Analyst Range
$91.00 – $120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -70%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $105.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential