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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 25
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $34.60
UPSIDE: 17.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.0% below fair value
Current Price $29.33
Bear Case $26.11 11.0% downside ($26.11 - $29.33) / $29.33 = -11.0% $1.38 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $31.19 6.3% upside ($31.19 - $29.33) / $29.33 = 6.3% $1.38 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $36.26 23.6% upside ($36.26 - $29.33) / $29.33 = 23.6% $1.38 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
1.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.60 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.19 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples