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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 26
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $32.00
UPSIDE: 14.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.4% below fair value
Current Price $28.05
Bear Case $24.30 13.4% downside ($24.30 - $28.05) / $28.05 = -13.4% $1.35 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $29.03 3.5% upside ($29.03 - $28.05) / $28.05 = 3.5% $1.35 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $33.75 20.3% upside ($33.75 - $28.05) / $28.05 = 20.3% $1.35 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
1.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.35, the base-case value is $29.03 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (47 analysts) $32.00
Analyst Range $28.00 – $34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples