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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 25
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $34.80
UPSIDE: 4.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.0% above fair value
Current Price $33.44
Bear Case $26.16 21.8% downside ($26.16 - $33.44) / $33.44 = -21.8% $1.38 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $31.25 6.5% downside ($31.25 - $33.44) / $33.44 = -6.5% $1.38 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $36.33 8.6% upside ($36.33 - $33.44) / $33.44 = 8.6% $1.38 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
1.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.80 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.25 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples